Talking Points 2011 election predictions

It takes a special kind of crazy to stand in a public square and loudly refute facts scientifically proven and obvious to all.

Think of the mapmakers who continued to insist, aainst astronomical evidence, the world ended where sea serpents swam and cherubs broke wind.  Imagine the nutcase who confronted astronaut Buzz Aldrin over his role in the massive conspiracy to fake the 1969 lunar landing.  Or the solitary Japanese soldiers on Pacific islands, who kept fighting W.W.II into the 8-track-tape era.

In the spirit of these hold-outs, flat-earthers and moon-deniers, Talking Points refuses to accept the growing mass of polling data that presages the NDP forming the official opposition or, in some scenarios, the government.

We just don’t believe.  So thin are résumés of NDP candidates in Quebec, so improvised is the party’s ground game, that they simply cannot get out enough votes to support the current seat projections in Quebec, some exceeding 50.

Similarly, we think pollsters have again underestimated the ballot-box commitment of Conservative voters, as they did in 2008. The base, this time, is older, grumpier, frightened and more determined to vote than opposition supporters.

At the risk of inducing an aneurism in Citizen colleague and prediction debunker Dan Gardner, here’s what Talking Points expects Monday, province by province. Riding-by-riding wild guesses follow the provincial summaries.

Come Tuesday morning, feel free to mock my ineptitude or laud my genius:

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
With wet blanket Danny Williams no longer a factor, the Conservatives will win back one seat from the Liberals, with Fabian Manning recapturing his old riding of Avalon.  But Liberal Siobhan Coady, a strong performer in the House of Commons, will hang on in St. John’s South–Mount Pearl.
CPC 1 (+1), LIB 5 (-1), NDP 1

NOVA SCOTIA
Despite rumors of his demise, expect moderate Conservative Gerald Keddy to hang on to South Shore–St. Margaret’s. But the Orange Crush will claim Liberal Michael Savage and elect New Democrat Robert Chisholm in Dartmouth–Cole Harbour.
CPC 4, LIB 4 (-1), NDP 3 (+1)

NEW BRUNSWICK
Expect the Liberals to drop a pair to the Tories. Mulroney era cabinet minister Bernie Valcourt will skid past Jean Claude D’Amours in Madawaska-Restigouche. Brian Murphy will get pipped by Robert Goguen in Moncton – Riverview – Dieppe.
CPC 8 (+2), LIB 1 (-2), NDP 1

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
Former Liberal cabinet minister Wayne Easter will fall to Tory Tim Ogilvie.
CPC 2 (+1), LIBS 2 (-1)

NORTHERN TERRITORIES
Conservative Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq holds Nunavut and Liberal Larry Bagnall retains the Yukon. NDP’s Dennis Bevington clings to Western Arctic.
CPC 1, LIB 1, NDP 1

SASKATCHEWAN
Voters’ comfort with NDP governments has to be a factor here.  In the Greater Moose Jaw area, New Democrat Noah Evanchuk will recapture an old NDP seat, Palliser, from the Conservatives, while Nettie Wiebe takes Saskatoon–Rosetown—Biggar from low-profile Tory Kelly Block. Liberal stalwart Ralph Goodale will barely hold onto Wascana, his party’s only seat in the province.
CPC 11 (-2), LIB 1, NDP 2 (+2)

ALBERTA
Paint it blue, once more. Sure, there was a glimmer of Prague spring in Edmonton in 2008, but a full-court press from the Tory ground machine will help Ryan Hastman recapture Edmonton – Strathcona from the NDP.
CPC 28 (+1)

MANITOBA
The rural-urban divide will preserve the status quo province-wide, except in Winnipeg-North where second time’s a charm for New Dem Rebecca Blaikie, daughter of Bill.
CPC 9, LIB 1 (-1), NDP 4 (+1)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Don’t buy the prediction of massive sea-to-sky change on the Lower Mainland. The NDP will pick off Surrey North from Conservative Dona Cadman, but that will be the only gainer.  Tory Ronald Leung will grab the NDP seat of Burnaby-Douglas vacated by Bill Siksay. Lib Ujjal Dosanjh will hold Vancouver South only by dint of Conservative Wai Young’s tragi-comic campaign.  On the Island, the Tories reclaim their rights to Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca after floor-crosser Keith Martin’s retirement.  Green Party leader Liz May strikes out against a cabinet minister for a second time as Conservative Gary Lunn holds Saanich – Gulf Islands.
CPC 23 (+1), LIB 4 (-1), NDP 9

QUEBEC
Was the Orange Crush that began in Quebec a hilarious piece of performance art perpetrated on pollsters? Yep.  The NDP will have see a few breakthroughs – in Gatineau, Francoise Boivin should ride the wave to knock-off Blocquiste Richard Nadeau, and Nycole Turmel will upset Liberal Marcel Proulx. Tom Mulcair will hold Outremont, NDP rookie Tyrone Benskin will steal Jeanne-Le Ber from the Bloc. And the NDP’s Hoang Mai will snatch Brossard–La Prairie from the Liberals. Despite weak poll numbers province-wide, we think the Tories will hold pat by dropping two seats and gaining two others held by the Bloc.
CPC 11, LIB 12 (-2), NDP 5 (+4), BLOC 46 (-2), IND 1

ONTARIO
The outcome of Election 41 was foreshadowed by the pre-writ leak of the Conservatives’ infamous “very ethnic” strategy to target multi-cult ridings, mostly around Toronto. On Monday, the Tories’ highly ironic use of long-form census data will pay off through Brampton and Mississauga.  Among the Liberal casualties in the GTA, expect to see Ruby Dhalla, Paul Szabo, Ken Dryden and Joe Volpe fall to Tories. Mario Silva and Gerard Kennedy will lose their Toronto seats to New Democrats.  Liberal Mark Holland in Ajax – Pickering will number among to survive the massacre.  Leader Michael Ignatieff should be fine in Etobicoke – Lakeshore, for what it’s worth.  Despite the drama in Simcoe-Grey, Conservative Kellie Leitch should dispatch Helena Guergis.  Around the capital, Liberal David Bertschi should edge out Conservative Royal Galiepeau in Ottawa – Orleans.  But expect incumbents to win all other Ontario seats in the National Capital.
CPC 58 (+7), LIB 29 (-8), NDP 19 (+2), IND 0 (-1)

CANADA
Talking Points predicts a narrow Conservative majority government, triggering the immediate resignation of Michael Ignatieff. Despite increasing seat totals, New Democrats will emerge disappointed they will not form the official opposition, as pollsters anticipated. Jack Layton will retire before the next election. The Green Party will also search for a new leader.  Or, I could be completely wrong.
CPC 156 (+11), LIB 60 (-17), NDP 45 (+9), BLOC 46 (-2), INDY 1 (-1)

Riding by riding predictions (* indicates party change)

RIDING	LAST MP TO HOLD SEAT		PROJECTED WINNER
Alberta
Calgary Centre	Lee Richardson	Cons.	Lee Richardson	Cons.
Calgary Centre-North	Jim Prentice	Cons.	Michelle Rempel	Cons.
Calgary East	Deepak Obhrai	Cons.	Deepak Obhrai	Cons.
Calgary Northeast	Devinder Shory	Cons.	Devinder Shory	Cons.
Calgary Southeast	Jason Kenney	Cons.	Jason Kenney	Cons.
Calgary Southwest	Stephen Harper	Cons.	Stephen J Harper	Cons.
Calgary West	Rob Anders	Cons.	Robert Anders	Cons.
Calgary–Nose Hill	Diane Ablonczy	Cons.	Diane Ablonczy	Cons.
Crowfoot	Kevin Sorenson	Cons.	Kevin A Sorenson	Cons.
Edmonton Centre	Laurie Hawn	Cons.	Laurie Hawn	Cons.
Edmonton East	Peter Goldring	Cons.	Peter Goldring	Cons.
Edmonton–Leduc	James Rajotte	Cons.	James Rajotte	Cons.
Edmonton–Mill Woods–Beaumont	Mike Lake	Cons.	Mike Lake	Cons.
Edmonton–Sherwood Park	Tim Uppal	Cons.	Tim Uppal	Cons.
Edmonton–Spruce Grove	Rona Ambrose	Cons.	Rona Ambrose	Cons.
Edmonton–St. Albert	Brent Rathgeber	Cons.	Brent Rathgeber	Cons.
Edmonton–Strathcona	Linda Duncan	NDP	Ryan Hastman	Cons.*
Fort McMurray–Athabasca	Brian Jean	Cons.	Brian Jean	Cons.
Lethbridge	Rick Casson	Cons.	Jim Hillyer	Cons.
Macleod	Ted Menzies	Cons.	Ted Menzies	Cons.
Medicine Hat	LaVar Payne	Cons.	LaVar Payne	Cons.
Peace River	Chris Warkentin	Cons.	Chris Warkentin	Cons.
Red Deer	Earl Dreeshen	Cons.	Earl Dreeshen	Cons.
Vegreville–Wainwright	Leon Benoit	Cons.	Leon Benoit	Cons.
Westlock–St. Paul	Brian Storseth	Cons.	Brian Storseth	Cons.
Wetaskiwin	Blaine Calkins	Cons.	Blaine Calkins	Cons.
Wild Rose	Blake Richards	Cons.	Blake Richards	Cons.
Yellowhead	Rob Merrifield	Cons.	Rob Merrifield	Cons.
British Columbia
Abbotsford	Ed Fast	Cons.	Ed Fast	Cons.
British Columbia Southern Interior	Alex Atamanenko	NDP	Alex Atamanenko	NDP
Burnaby–Douglas	Bill Siksay	NDP	Ronald Leung	Cons.*
Burnaby–New Westminster	Peter Julian	NDP	Peter Julian	NDP
Cariboo–Prince George	Richard M. Harris	Cons.	Dick Harris	Cons.
Chilliwack–Fraser Canyon	Chuck Strahl	Cons.	Mark Strahl	Cons.
Delta–Richmond East	John Cummins	Cons.	Kerry-Lynne Findlay	Cons.
Esquimalt–Juan de Fuca	Keith Martin	Lib.	Troy DeSouza	Cons.*
Fleetwood–Port Kells	Nina Grewal	Cons.	Nina Grewal	Cons.
Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo	Cathy McLeod	Cons.	Cathy McLeod	Cons.
Kelowna–Lake Country	Ron Cannan	Cons.	Ron Cannan	Cons.
Kootenay–Columbia	Jim Abbott	Cons.	David Wilks	Cons.
Langley	Mark Warawa	Cons.	Mark Warawa	Cons.
Nanaimo–Alberni	James Lunney	Cons.	James Lunney	Cons.
Nanaimo–Cowichan	Jean Crowder	NDP	Jean Crowder	NDP
New Westminster–Coquitlam	Fin Donnelly	NDP	Fin Donnelly	NDP
Newton–North Delta	Sukh Dhaliwal	Lib.	Sukh Dhaliwal	Lib.
North Vancouver	Andrew Saxton	Cons.	Andrew Saxton	Cons.
Okanagan–Coquihalla	Stockwell Day	Cons.	Dan Albas	Cons.
Okanagan–Shuswap	Colin Mayes	Cons.	Colin Mayes	Cons.
Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge–Mission	Randy Kamp	Cons.	Randy Kamp	Cons.
Port Moody–Westwood–Port Coquitlam	James Moore	Cons.	James Moore	Cons.
Prince George–Peace River	Jay Hill	Cons.	Bob Zimmer	Cons.
Richmond	Alice Wong	Cons.	Alice Wong	Cons.
Saanich–Gulf Islands	Gary Lunn	Cons.	Gary Lunn	Cons.
Skeena–Bulkley Valley	Nathan Cullen	NDP	Nathan Paul Cullen	NDP
South Surrey–White Rock–Cloverdale	Russ Hiebert	Cons.	Russ Hiebert	Cons.
Surrey North	Dona Cadman	Cons.	Jasbir Sandhu	NDP*
Vancouver Centre	Hedy Fry	Lib.	Hedy Fry	Lib.
Vancouver East	Libby Davies	NDP	Libby Davies	NDP
Vancouver Island North	John Duncan	Cons.	John Duncan	Cons.
Vancouver Kingsway	Don Davies	NDP	Don Davies	NDP
Vancouver Quadra	Joyce Murray	Lib.	Joyce Murray	Lib.
Vancouver South	Ujjal Dosanjh	Lib.	Ujjal Dosanjh	Lib.
Victoria	Denise Savoie	NDP	Denise Savoie	NDP
West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country	John Weston	Cons.	John Weston	Cons.
Manitoba
Brandon–Souris	Merv Tweed	Cons.	Merv Tweed	Cons.
Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia	Steven Fletcher	Cons.	Steven Fletcher	Cons.
Churchill	Niki Ashton	NDP	Niki Ashton	NDP
Dauphin–Swan River–Marquette	Robert Sopuck	Cons.	Robert Sopuck	Cons.
Elmwood–Transcona	Jim Maloway	NDP	Jim Maloway	NDP
Kildonan–St. Paul	Joy Smith	Cons.	Joy Smith	Cons.
Portage–Lisgar	Candice Hoeppner	Cons.	Candice Hoeppner	Cons.
Provencher	Vic Toews	Cons.	Vic Toews	Cons.
Saint Boniface	Shelly Glover	Cons.	Shelly Glover	Cons.
Selkirk–Interlake	James Bezan	Cons.	James Bezan	Cons.
Winnipeg Centre	Pat Martin	NDP	Pat Martin	NDP
Winnipeg North	Kevin Lamoureux	Lib.	Rebecca Blaikie	NDP*
Winnipeg South	Rod Bruinooge	Cons.	Rod Bruinooge	Cons.
Winnipeg South Centre	Anita Neville	Lib.	Anita Neville	Lib.
New Brunswick
Acadie–Bathurst	Yvon Godin	NDP	Yvon Godin	NDP
Beauséjour	Dominic LeBlanc	Lib.	Dominic LeBlanc	Lib.
Fredericton	Keith Ashfield	Cons.	Keith Ashfield	Cons.
Fundy Royal	Rob Moore	Cons.	Rob Moore	Cons.
Madawaska–Restigouche	Jean-Claude D’Amours	Lib.	Bernard Valcourt	Cons.*
Miramichi	Tilly O’Neill-Gordon	Cons.	Tilly O’Neill Gordon	Cons.
Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe	Brian Murphy	Lib.	Robert Goguen	Cons.*
New Brunswick Southwest	Greg Thompson	Cons.	John Williamson	Cons.
Saint John	Rodney Weston	Cons.	Rodney Weston	Cons.
Tobique–Mactaquac	Mike Allen	Cons.	Mike Allen	Cons.
Newfoundland and Labrador
Avalon	Scott Andrews	Lib.	Fabian Manning	Cons.*
Bonavista–Gander–Grand Falls–Windsor	Scott Simms	Lib.	Scott Simms	Lib.
Humber–St. Barbe–Baie Verte	Gerry Byrne	Lib.	Gerry Byrne	Lib.
Labrador	Todd Russell	Lib.	Todd Russell	Lib.
Random–Burin–St. George’s	Judy Foote	Lib.	Judy Foote	Lib.
St. John’s South–Mount Pearl	Siobhan Coady	Lib.	Siobhan Coady	Lib.
St. John’s East	Jack Harris	NDP	Jack Harris	NDP
Nova Scotia
Cape Breton–Canso	Rodger Cuzner	Lib.	Rodger Cuzner	Lib.
Central Nova	Peter Gordon MacKay	Cons.	Peter G. MacKay	Cons.
Cumberland–Colchester–Musquodoboit Valley	Scott Armstrong	Cons.	Scott Armstrong	Cons.
Dartmouth–Cole Harbour	Michael Savage	Lib.	Robert Chisholm	NDP*
Halifax	Megan Leslie	NDP	Megan Leslie	NDP
Halifax West	Geoff Regan	Lib.	Geoff Regan	Lib.
Kings–Hants	Scott Brison	Lib.	Scott Brison	Lib.
Sackville–Eastern Shore	Peter Stoffer	NDP	Peter Stoffer	NDP
South Shore–St. Margaret’s	Gerald Keddy	Cons.	Gerald Keddy	Cons.
Sydney–Victoria	Mark Eyking	Lib.	Mark Eyking	Lib.
West Nova	Greg Kerr	Cons.	Greg Kerr	Cons.
Ontario
Ajax–Pickering	Mark Holland	Lib.	Mark Holland	Lib.
Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing	Carol Hughes	NDP	Carol Hughes	NDP
Ancaster–Dundas–Flamborough–Westdale	David Sweet	Cons.	David Sweet	Cons.
Barrie	Patrick Brown	Cons.	Patrick Brown	Cons.
Beaches–East York	Maria Minna	Lib.	Maria Minna	Lib.
Bramalea–Gore–Malton	Gurbax Malhi	Lib.	Bal Gosal	Cons.*
Brampton West	Andrew Kania	Lib.	Kyle Seeback	Cons.*
Brampton–Springdale	Ruby Dhalla	Lib.	Parm Gill	Cons.*
Brant	Phil McColeman	Cons.	Phil McColeman	Cons.
Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound	Larry Miller	Cons.	Larry Miller	Cons.
Burlington	Mike Wallace	Cons.	Mike Wallace	Cons.
Cambridge	Gary Goodyear	Cons.	Gary Goodyear	Cons.
Carleton–Mississippi Mills	Gordon O’Connor	Cons.	Gordon O’Connor	Cons.
Chatham-Kent–Essex	Dave Van Kesteren	Cons.	Dave Van Kesteren	Cons.
Davenport	Mario Silva	Lib.	Andrew Cash	NDP*
Don Valley East	Yasmin Ratansi	Lib.	Yasmin Ratansi	Lib.
Don Valley West	Robert Oliphant	Lib.	Robert Oliphant	Lib.
Dufferin–Caledon	David Tilson	Cons.	David Tilson	Cons.
Durham	Bev Oda	Cons.	Bev Oda	Cons.
Eglinton–Lawrence	Joseph Volpe	Lib.	Joe Oliver	Cons.*
Elgin–Middlesex–London	Joe Preston	Cons.	Joe Preston	Cons.
Essex	Jeff Watson	Cons.	Jeff Watson	Cons.
Etobicoke Centre	Borys Wrzesnewskyj	Lib.	Borys Wrzesnewskyj	Lib.
Etobicoke North	Kirsty Duncan	Lib.	Kirsty Duncan	Lib.
Etobicoke–Lakeshore	Michael Ignatieff	Lib.	Michael Ignatieff	Lib.
Glengarry–Prescott–Russell	Pierre Lemieux	Cons.	Pierre Lemieux	Cons.
Guelph	Francis Valeriote	Lib.	Bob Speller	Lib.
Haldimand–Norfolk	Diane Finley	Cons.	Diane Finley	Cons.
Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock	Barry Devolin	Cons.	Barry Devolin	Cons.
Halton	Lisa Raitt	Cons.	Lisa Raitt	Cons.
Hamilton Centre	David Christopherson	NDP	David Christopherson	NDP
Hamilton East–Stoney Creek	Wayne Marston	NDP	Wayne Marston	NDP
Hamilton Mountain	Chris Charlton	NDP	Chris Charlton	NDP
Huron–Bruce	Ben Lobb	Cons.	Ben Lobb	Cons.
Kenora	Greg Rickford	Cons.	Greg Rickford	Cons.
Kingston and the Islands	Peter Milliken	Lib.	Alicia Gordon	Cons.*
Kitchener Centre	Stephen Woodworth	Cons.	Stephen Woodworth	Cons.
Kitchener–Conestoga	Harold Albrecht	Cons.	Harold Albrecht	Cons.
Kitchener–Waterloo	Peter Braid	Cons.	Peter Braid	Cons.
Lambton–Kent–Middlesex	Bev Shipley	Cons.	Bev Shipley	Cons.
Lanark–Frontenac–Lennox and Addington	Scott Reid	Cons.	Scott Reid	Cons.
Leeds–Grenville	Gordon Brown	Cons.	Gord Brown	Cons.
London North Centre	Glen Pearson	Lib.	Glen Pearson	Lib.
London West	Ed Holder	Cons.	Ed Holder	Cons.
London–Fanshawe	Irene Mathyssen	NDP	Irene Mathyssen	NDP
Markham–Unionville	John McCallum	Lib.	John McCallum	Lib.
Mississauga East–Cooksville	Albina Guarnieri	Lib.	Peter Fonseca	Lib.
Mississauga South	Paul Szabo	Lib.	Stella Ambler	Cons.*
Mississauga–Brampton South	Navdeep Bains	Lib.	Navdeep Bains	Lib.
Mississauga–Erindale	Bob Dechert	Cons.	Robert Dechert	Cons.
Mississauga–Streetsville	Bonnie Crombie	Lib.	Bonnie Crombie	Lib.
Nepean–Carleton	Pierre Poilievre	Cons.	Pierre Poilievre	Cons.
Newmarket–Aurora	Lois Brown	Cons.	Lois Brown	Cons.
Niagara Falls	Rob Nicholson	Cons.	Rob Nicholson	Cons.
Niagara West–Glanbrook	Dean Allison	Cons.	Dean Allison	Cons.
Nickel Belt	Claude Gravelle	NDP	Claude Gravelle	NDP
Nipissing–Timiskaming	Anthony Rota	Lib.	Anthony Rota	Lib.
Northumberland–Quinte West	Rick Norlock	Cons.	Rick Norlock	Cons.
Oak Ridges–Markham	Paul Calandra	Cons.	Paul Calandra	Cons.
Oakville	Terence Young	Cons.	Terence Young	Cons.
Oshawa	Colin Carrie	Cons.	Colin Carrie	Cons.
Ottawa Centre	Paul Dewar	NDP	Paul Dewar	NDP
Ottawa South	David McGuinty	Lib.	David McGuinty	Lib.
Ottawa West–Nepean	John Baird	Cons.	John Baird	Cons.
Ottawa–Orléans	Royal Galipeau	Cons.	David Bertschi	Lib.*
Ottawa–Vanier	Mauril Bélanger	Lib.	Mauril Bélanger	Lib.
Oxford	Dave MacKenzie	Cons.	Dave MacKenzie	Cons.
Parkdale–High Park	Gerard Kennedy	Lib.	Peggy Nash	NDP*
Parry Sound–Muskoka	Tony Clement	Cons.	Tony Clement	Cons.
Perth–Wellington	Gary Schellenberger	Cons.	Gary Schellenberger	Cons.
Peterborough	Dean Del Mastro	Cons.	Dean Del Mastro	Cons.
Pickering–Scarborough East	Dan McTeague	Lib.	Dan McTeague	Lib.
Prince Edward–Hastings	Daryl Kramp	Cons.	Daryl Kramp	Cons.
Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke	Cheryl Gallant	Cons.	Cheryl Gallant	Cons.
Richmond Hill	Bryon Wilfert	Lib.	Bryon Wilfert	Lib.
Sarnia–Lambton	Patricia Davidson	Cons.	Pat Davidson	Cons.
Sault Ste. Marie	Tony Martin	NDP	Tony Martin	NDP
Scarborough Centre	John Cannis	Lib.	John Cannis	Lib.
Scarborough Southwest	Michelle Simson	Lib.	Michelle Simson	Lib.
Scarborough–Agincourt	Jim Karygiannis	Lib.	Jim Karygiannis	Lib.
Scarborough–Guildwood	John McKay	Lib.	John McKay	Lib.
Scarborough–Rouge River	Derek Lee	Lib.	Rana Sarkar	Lib.
Simcoe North	Bruce Stanton	Cons.	Bruce Stanton	Cons.
Simcoe–Grey	Helena Guergis	Independent Cons.	Kellie Leitch	Cons.*
St. Catharines	Rick Dykstra	Cons.	Rick Dykstra	Cons.
St. Paul’s	Carolyn Bennett	Lib.	Carolyn Bennett	Lib.
Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry	Guy Lauzon	Cons.	Guy Lauzon	Cons.
Sudbury	Glenn Thibeault	NDP	Glenn Thibeault	NDP
Thornhill	Peter Kent	Cons.	Peter Kent	Cons.
Thunder Bay–Rainy River	John Rafferty	NDP	John Rafferty	NDP
Thunder Bay–Superior North	Bruce Hyer	NDP	Bruce Hyer	NDP
Timmins–James Bay	Charlie Angus	NDP	Charlie Angus	NDP
Toronto Centre	Bob Rae	Lib.	Bob Rae	Lib.
Toronto–Danforth	Jack Layton	NDP	Jack Layton	NDP
Trinity–Spadina	Olivia Chow	NDP	Olivia Chow	NDP
Vaughan	Julian Fantino	Cons.	Julian Fantino	Cons.
Welland	Malcolm Allen	NDP	Malcolm Allen	NDP
Wellington–Halton Hills	Michael Chong	Cons.	Michael Chong	Cons.
Whitby–Oshawa	Jim Flaherty	Cons.	Jim Flaherty	Cons.
Willowdale	Martha Hall Findlay	Lib.	Martha Hall Findlay	Lib.
Windsor West	Brian Masse	NDP	Brian Masse	NDP
Windsor–Tecumseh	Joe Comartin	NDP	Joe Comartin	NDP
York Centre	Ken Dryden	Lib.	Mark Adler	Cons.*
York South–Weston	Alan Tonks	Lib.	Alan Tonks	Lib.
York West	Judy Sgro	Lib.	Judy Sgro	Lib.
York–Simcoe	Peter Van Loan	Cons.	Peter Van Loan	Cons.
Prince Edward Island
Cardigan	Lawrence MacAulay	Lib.	Lawrence MacAulay	Lib.
Charlottetown	Shawn Murphy	Lib.	Shawn Murphy	Lib.
Egmont	Gail Shea	Cons.	Gail Shea	Cons.
Malpeque	Wayne Easter	Lib.	Tim Ogilvie	Cons.*
Quebec
Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou	Yvon Lévesque	Bloc	Yvon Lévesque	Bloc
Abitibi–Témiscamingue	Marc Lemay	Bloc	Marc Lemay	Bloc
Ahuntsic	Maria Mourani	Bloc	Maria Mourani	Bloc
Alfred-Pellan	Robert Carrier	Bloc	Robert Carrier	Bloc
Argenteuil–Papineau–Mirabel	Mario Laframboise	Bloc	Mario Laframboise	Bloc
Bas-Richelieu–Nicolet–Bécancour	Louis Plamondon	Bloc	Louis Plamondon	Bloc
Beauce	Maxime Bernier	Cons.	Maxime Bernier	Cons.
Beauharnois–Salaberry	Claude DeBellefeuille	Bloc	Claude DeBellefeuille	Bloc
Beauport–Limoilou	Sylvie Boucher	Cons.	Michel Létourneau	Bloc *
Berthier–Maskinongé	Guy André	Bloc	Guy André	Bloc
Bourassa	Denis Coderre	Lib.	Denis Coderre	Lib.
Brome–Missisquoi	Christian Ouellet	Bloc	Christelle Bogosta	Bloc
Brossard–La Prairie	Alexandra Mendes	Lib.	Hoang Mai	NDP*
Chambly–Borduas	Yves Lessard	Bloc	Yves Lessard	Bloc
Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles	Daniel Petit	Cons.	Daniel Petit	Cons.
Châteauguay–Saint-Constant	Carole Freeman	Bloc	Carole Freeman	Bloc
Chicoutimi–Le Fjord	Robert Bouchard	Bloc	Robert Bouchard	Bloc
Compton–Stanstead	France Bonsant	Bloc	France Bonsant	Bloc
Drummond	Roger Pomerleau	Bloc	Roger Pomerleau	Bloc
Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine	Raynald Blais	Bloc	Daniel Côté	Bloc
Gatineau	Richard Nadeau	Bloc	Françoise Boivin	NDP*
Haute-Gaspésie–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia	Jean-Yves Roy	Bloc	Jean-François Fortin	Bloc
Hochelaga	Daniel Paillé	Bloc	Daniel Paillé	Bloc
Honoré-Mercier	Pablo Rodriguez	Lib.	Pablo Rodriguez	Lib.
Hull–Aylmer	Marcel Proulx	Lib.	Nycole Turmel	NDP*
Jeanne-Le Ber	Thierry St-Cyr	Bloc	Tyrone Benskin	NDP*
Joliette	Pierre Paquette	Bloc	Pierre A. Paquette	Bloc
Jonquière–Alma	Jean-Pierre Blackburn	Cons.	Jean-Pierre Blackburn	Cons.
La Pointe-de-l’Île	Francine Lalonde	Bloc	Ginette Beaudry	Bloc
Lac-Saint-Louis	Francis Scarpaleggia	Lib.	Francis Scarpaleggia	Lib.
LaSalle–Émard	Lise Zarac	Lib.	Lise Zarac	Lib.
Laurentides–Labelle	Johanne Deschamps	Bloc	Johanne Deschamps	Bloc
Laurier–Sainte-Marie	Gilles Duceppe	Bloc	Gilles Duceppe	Bloc
Laval	Nicole Demers	Bloc	Nicole Demers	Bloc
Laval–Les Îles	Raymonde Folco	Lib.	Karine Joizil	Lib.
Lévis–Bellechasse	Steven Blaney	Cons.	Steven Blaney	Cons.
Longueuil–Pierre-Boucher	Jean Dorion	Bloc	Jean Dorion	Bloc
Lotbinière–Chutes-de-la-Chaudière	Jacques Gourde	Cons.	Jacques Gourde	Cons.
Louis-Hébert	Pascal-Pierre Paillé	Bloc	Pierre Paul-Hus	Cons.*
Louis-Saint-Laurent	Josée Verner	Cons.	Josée Verner	Cons.
Manicouagan	Gérard Asselin	Bloc	Gérard Asselin	Bloc
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	Serge Ménard	Bloc	Marie-France Charbonneau	Bloc
Mégantic–L’Érable	Christian Paradis	Cons.	Christian Paradis	Cons.
Montcalm	Roger Gaudet	Bloc	Roger Gaudet	Bloc
Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup	Bernard Généreux	Cons.	Nathalie Arsenault	Bloc *
Montmorency–Charlevoix–Haute-Côte-Nord	Michel Guimond	Bloc	Michel Guimond	Bloc
Mount Royal	Irwin Cotler	Lib.	Irwin Cotler	Lib.
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Lachine	Marlene Jennings	Lib.	Marlene Jennings	Lib.
Outremont	Thomas Mulcair	NDP	Thomas Mulcair	NDP
Papineau	Justin Trudeau	Lib.	Justin Trudeau	Lib.
Pierrefonds–Dollard	Bernard Patry	Lib.	Bernard Patry	Lib.
Pontiac	Lawrence Cannon	Cons.	Lawrence Cannon	Cons.
Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier	André Arthur	Independent	Andre Arthur	Independent
Québec	Christiane Gagnon	Bloc	Christiane Gagnon	Bloc
Repentigny	Nicolas Dufour	Bloc	Nicolas Dufour	Bloc
Richmond–Arthabaska	André Bellavance	Bloc	André Bellavance	Bloc
Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques	Claude Guimond	Bloc	Claude Guimond	Bloc
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	Luc Desnoyers	Bloc	Luc Desnoyers	Bloc
Rivière-du-Nord	Monique Guay	Bloc	Monique Guay	Bloc
Roberval–Lac-Saint-Jean	Denis Lebel	Cons.	Denis Lebel	Cons.
Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie	Bernard Bigras	Bloc	Bernard Bigras	Bloc
Saint-Bruno–Saint-Hubert	Carole Lavallée	Bloc	Carole Lavallée	Bloc
Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot	Ève-Mary Thaï Thi Lac	Bloc	Ève-Mary Thaï Thi Lac	Bloc
Saint-Jean	Claude Bachand	Bloc	Claude Bachand	Bloc
Saint-Lambert	Josée Beaudin	Bloc	Josée Beaudin	Bloc
Saint-Laurent–Cartierville	Stéphane Dion	Lib.	Stéphane Dion	Lib.
Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel	Massimo Pacetti	Lib.	Massimo Pacetti	Lib.
Saint-Maurice–Champlain	Jean-Yves Laforest	Bloc	Jean-Yves Laforest	Bloc
Shefford	Robert Vincent	Bloc	Robert Vincent	Bloc
Sherbrooke	Serge Cardin	Bloc	Serge Cardin	Bloc
Terrebonne–Blainville	Diane Bourgeois	Bloc	Diane Bourgeois	Bloc
Trois-Rivières	Paule Brunelle	Bloc	Paule Brunelle	Bloc
Vaudreuil-Soulanges	Meili Faille	Bloc	Marc Boudreau	Cons.*
Verchères–Les Patriotes	Luc Malo	Bloc	Luc Malo	Bloc
Westmount–Ville-Marie	Marc Garneau	Lib.	Marc Garneau	Lib.
Saskatchewan
Battlefords–Lloydminster	Gerry Ritz	Cons.	Gerry Ritz	Cons.
Blackstrap	Lynne Yelich	Cons.	Lynne Yelich	Cons.
Cypress Hills–Grasslands	David Anderson	Cons.	David Anderson	Cons.
Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River	Rob Clarke	Cons.	Rob Gordon Clarke	Cons.
Palliser	Ray Boughen	Cons.	Noah Patrick Evanchuk	NDP*
Prince Albert	Randy Hoback	Cons.	Randy Hoback	Cons.
Regina–Lumsden–Lake Centre	Tom Lukiwski	Cons.	Tom Lukiwski	Cons.
Regina–Qu’Appelle	Andrew Scheer	Cons.	Andrew Scheer	Cons.
Saskatoon–Humboldt	Brad Trost	Cons.	Brad Trost	Cons.
Saskatoon–Rosetown–Biggar	Kelly Block	Cons.	Nettie Wiebe	NDP*
Saskatoon–Wanuskewin	Maurice Vellacott	Cons.	Maurice Vellacott	Cons.
Souris–Moose Mountain	Ed Komarnicki	Cons.	Ed Komarnicki	Cons.
Wascana	Ralph Goodale	Lib.	Ralph Goodale	Lib.
Yorkton–Melville	Garry Breitkreuz	Cons.	Garry Breitkreuz	Cons.
Northern Territories
Yukon	Bagnell,Larry	Lib.	Larry Bagnell	Lib.
Western Arctic	Dennis Bevington	NDP	Dennis Bevington	NDP
Nunavut	Leona Aglukkaq	Cons.	Leona Aglukkaq	Cons.